Course Syllabus

Course Information：

Year-Semester	Course Number	Course Name	Phase	Credits	Hours	Required/Elective	Instructor	Class	Student NO.	Withdraw	Note
Spring Semester Year 2026	359604	Future Studies & Forecasting	1	2.0	2	★	Sheng Ming Wang	GIMD IDI DID	8	0	Joint class for Daytime Master’s, International Master’s, and Design PhD students; limited to 40 students.

Course Plan：

Instructor	Sheng Ming Wang　Office Hours
Email	ryan5885@gmail.com
Last Updated	2025-12-18 08:38:41
Course Objective	「Forecasting isn’t prediction.」- Paul Saffo Future Studies & Forecasting will be more and more important skill for every young generation students. What will the future look alike? What is the driving forces pushing us from current to the future? How many pace layers of future arrivals? In this class, we will discuss Stanford consulting prof. Paul Saffo’s Future Studies & Forecasting methods, by – Observing current trends, future event debate, Matrices and Axes of Uncertainty, future mindset developing, etc. Overview Futures Research is a survey course about the methods and tools that professional futurists use to help people anticipate and influence the future. It is a core course in the Futures Studies program. It covers methods and tools used by forecasters in general as well as by professional futurists. It also covers the techniques that futurists use more than others to forecast the future, particularly creating scenarios of the future, and the techniques used by futurists and consultants alike to help people influence the future, particularly visions, strategic plans, and change management programs. Objectives The student will understand and become familiar with: • the framework approach to forecasting • critical thinking and other approaches to challenging assumptions • leading creativity tools and approaches and how they apply to futures • how to develop and evaluate scenarios
Course Schedule	Week 1 Introduction • Become familiar with course objectives, expectations, and procedures • Become familiar with the learning platform. • Introduce yourself to your classmates. • State of the Art in Strategic Foresight UNIT 1 FRAMEWORK FORECASTING: (Weeks 2 –5) Week 2 Environmental Scanning • Understand an approach to environmental scanning • Practice that approaches and assess how well each we and others are using it Week 3 Research • Understand the futures forecasting process, including frameworks, monitoring, and scanning • Present futures information in a logical order for forecasting alternative futures using the framework process Week 4 Interviews & Questionnaires • List how people find out about other people's information, attitudes, expectations, and preferences for the future. • Understand the differences among those ways, including the advantages and disadvantages of each. • Practice the skills of preparing, administering, analyzing, and drawing inferences from an open-ended interview. • Learn about questionnaire design and construction • Learn about related topics, such as measurement, sampling, and the Delphi survey technique • Practice the skills of preparing, administering, analyzing, and drawing inferences from a structured questionnaire. Week 2 Forecasting • Understand the nature of forecasting, its assumptions, its utility, and its difficulties UNIT 2 CHALLENGING ASSUMPTIONS: (Weeks 6 –7) Week 6 Causal Layered Analysis • Understand and apply the causal layered analysis method • Become familiar with the concept of "depth" in futures work Week 7 Critical Thinking • Learn a process for investigating the support for an inference, such as a forecast • Conduct a critical analysis of a forecast in the published literature UNIT 3 CREATIVITY: (Weeks 8 –9) Week 8 Creativity Approaches • Become acquainted with key concepts, terms, and approaches to creativity Week 9 Creativity Tools • Learn a standard approach to creative problem solving • Become familiar with a variety of creativity techniques • Practice applications of two principal creativity tools UNIT 4 SCENARIOS: (Weeks 10 –12) Week 10 Scenario Theory • Become acquainted with key concepts, terms, and criteria of scenarios Week 11 Scenario Methods • Compare the strengths and weaknesses of various scenario approaches • Learn how to analyze and evaluate scenarios Week 12 Scenario Cases • Acquire an in-depth understanding of a leading practitioners approach to scenarios UNIT 5 CONCLUSION: (Weeks 13 –15) Week 13 Draft Portfolio • Prepare draft portfolio for instructor feedback Week 15 - 18 Final Portfolio • Submit the final portfolio
Evaluation and grading policy	Attendance (4) 10% Major Assignments (2) 20% Midterm report (1). 20% Assignments (4) 20% Final Portfolio 30%
Materials	All right reserved. Do not reproduce without permission. Foreign-language textbooks:Yes • Micheal Ray, Creativity in Business • Jerry Glenn & Ted Gordon, Futures Research Methodology V2.0, CD, Washington DC, Millennium Project • Other readings will be available online • Also, there is a requirement to do a synopsis of one scenario book from the list below: o Fahey, Liam & Randall, Robert (eds.). Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios. 1998. o Georgantzas, Nicholas C. & Acar, William. Scenario-driven planning. 1995. o Kahane, Adam. Solving tough problems: An open way of talking, listening, and creating new realities. berrett-koehler, 2004. o Lindgren, Mats & Bandhold, Hans. Scenario planning: The link between future and strategy. 2003. o ManyWorlds. Grasping the future: Comparing scenario planning to other forecasting techniques. 2001. o Ogilvy, Jay. Creating better futures: Scenario planning as a tool for a better tomorrow. 2002. o Ringland, Gill, Scenario planning: Managing for the future. 1998. o Ringland ,Gill. Scenarios in public policy. 2002. o Schwartz, Peter. The art of the long view. 1996. o Van Der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. 1996. o Van Der Heijden, Kees. The sixth sense: Accelerating organisational learning with scenarios. 2002.
The access to curricular consultation	1. Send an email to make an appointment for an online or in-person meeting. My Email: ryan5885@mail.ntut.edu.tw 2. Make an appointment in class to attend a consultation session afterward. 3. "未來前瞻" line group
The course corresponds to the SDGs	SDG3：良好健康和福祉（Good Health and Well-being） SDG4：優質教育（Quality Education） SDG11：永續城市與社區（Sustainable Cities and Communities）
Does the course incorporate AI	● 使用生成式AI作為教學過程的輔助工具（Use generative AI tools as an aid to the teaching process） ● 鼓勵學生使用生成式AI工具（Encourage students to use generative AI tools）
Note	According to the school notice, the class might need to go online from 6/8 to 6/22. Please use the following channel to finalize what you learned this term. 1. Use the "未來前瞻" line group for consultation and discussion. 2. Use the Google Classroom "https://classroom.google.com/c/NjQ4OTYxMjczODEy?cjc=pz6gdpn" for lecture materials and assignment submission. 3. Use Google Meet for further lecturing Lecture: Future Studies and Forecasting Wednesday, June 12 · 6:30 – 9:45pm Time zone: Asia/Taipei Google Meet joining info Video call link: https://meet.google.com/irp-nqnr-jkd